US dollar index fluctuations disrupt the market, with copper prices rising first and then falling overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM News on June 18: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,686.5/mt. It rose early in the session, hitting a high of $9,713/mt, then fluctuated downward during the session, touching a low of $9,647.5/mt. It rebounded slightly towards the end of the session, closing at $9,670/mt, down 0.26%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, and open interest reached 293,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,600 yuan/mt. It hit a high of 78,690 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward, touching a low of 78,360 yuan/mt during the session. It rebounded steadily towards the end of the session, closing at 78,560 yuan/mt, up 0.04%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest reached 182,000 lots. On the macro side, data showed that US retail sales fell more than expected in May, but consumer spending remained supported by robust wage growth. The US dollar index weakened, but as the market digested the data, the US dollar reversed its losses, and copper prices first rose and then fell. On the fundamental side, no warrants were issued on the first trading day of the SHFE copper 2507 contract. Despite the replenishment of Russian supplies, they were difficult to be widely purchased by downstream users, leading to tight spot cargo availability. It is expected that unmatched delivery warrants may be issued in advance tomorrow, and suppliers may sell at lower prices in the morning session, with the risk of a downward shift in the center of premium. In summary, given the presence of bearish factors, it is expected that the upside potential for copper prices today will be limited.